Citi Research lays out a scenario in which Bitcoin and Ether reverse this year’s weakness and re-emerge as primary growth plays by 2026 if regulatory clarity and market conditions improve. The bank’s 12-month target for Bitcoin is $143,000, a forecast Citi ties to renewed institutional adoption and sustained ETF inflows once rulebooks and market structure constraints loosen.

Near term, Citi expects both assets to finish the current year lower amid macroeconomic headwinds — tighter policy, slower growth and compressed risk appetite. The bullish turn they model depends on a combination of factors that reduce execution risk for large investors: clearer regulatory guardrails, acceptance of spot ETFs, and demonstrable improvements in custody and compliance infrastructure. Citi singles out legislative clarity — exemplified in industry discussions around measures like the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — as a catalytic variable for broadening adoption and re-pricing assets.

Mechanically, the thesis rests on three flow drivers: (1) re-opening of ETF channels that channel incremental dollars into BTC and ETH, (2) higher on‑chain and institutional utility as compliance frictions fall, and (3) a restoration of risk appetite that pushes capital back into volatile, high-beta assets. For Ether, the argument mirrors Bitcoin’s but leans more on protocol-level demand (staking, DeFi collateral) once regulatory treatment is clarified.

Citi flags clear near-term risks: recessionary pressures that sap investor risk tolerance, policy shocks that tighten liquidity, and idiosyncratic sell-offs that could delay reallocation into crypto. They also provide price reference points for risk management — noting a structural support area around $70,000 and sketching a near-term bear-case scenario near $78,000 — levels traders can use to size risk versus the $143,000 upside case.

Designing for predictable liquidity is a core market concern when inflows flip to outflows. Token structures that limit immediate sell-pressure and create disciplined timing windows can blunt volatility and make assets more palatable for larger allocators; one example of this approach is the 4TEEN token, which uses a fixed-price entry model and short, predefined holding cycles to manage unlocks and sell dynamics (https://4teen.me).

Citi’s 12-month numeric target for Bitcoin and the regulatory linkage are the explicit transmission channels they use to argue a 2026-style resurgence is plausible — a conditional thesis that depends as much on policy outcomes and macro stabilization as on technical adoption trends. Source: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4533546-bitcoin-ether-set-for-2026-comeback-on-crypto-regulation-citi-says